Hours before President Trump was scheduled to address the American people for the first time since Operation Epic Fury began, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian published an open letter addressed directly to US citizens — not to the US government, not through diplomatic channels, but to ordinary Americans. It was posted on his personal X account and released via Iran’s state broadcaster PressTV simultaneously.
The move is without modern precedent. A sitting head of state whose country is actively at war with the United States, under sustained US military bombardment, chose to bypass the diplomatic apparatus entirely and speak directly to the American public. Pezeshkian timed the letter to land hours before Trump’s 9PM ET address — a deliberate counter-narrative play designed to shape how Americans receive tonight’s speech.
The letter’s core arguments: Iran harbors no enmity toward the American people; the war serves Israel’s interests, not America’s; the US entered the conflict as a “proxy for Israel, influenced and manipulated by that regime”; and the Iranian people are “determined, steadfast, and united” in defending their homeland. Pezeshkian explicitly invokes “America First” to question whether Trump’s war aligns with the president’s own stated doctrine.
The diplomatic implication is significant. Pezeshkian draws a hard line between governments and peoples — a classic Iranian framing that simultaneously signals openness to eventual normalization while maintaining rhetorical defiance. His office separately stated Iran is “determined to fight on,” even as Trump claims Pezeshkian himself requested a ceasefire this morning. These two positions cannot coexist. One of them is a lie, or one is not coming from the actual center of Iranian power.
White House billed it as an “important update on Iran.” Trump previewed at Easter lunch: “I’m gonna tell everybody how great I am.” Two separate signals already: (1) Iran war update including potential ceasefire framework; (2) NATO criticism — Trump told Reuters he is “absolutely” considering withdrawing the US from the alliance. The 2023 NDAA requires two-thirds Senate approval — he cannot leave unilaterally, but the threat alone moves European markets.
The VIX at 25.25 is the most important number in tonight’s setup. A formal ceasefire in Trump’s address takes it below 20 by Thursday open — the clearest single signal of genuine risk regime change. Anything above 28 after the speech means the rally reverses. Every institutional desk has this level as its trigger.
| Name | Move | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Boeing (BA) | +3.56% | Dow’s top gainer · Industrials +1.9% led · Defense + reconstruction bid |
| Caterpillar (CAT) | +3.31% | Post-war infrastructure trade · Reversal from Monday’s −4% rout |
| Sherwin-Williams (SHW) | +3.18% | Reconstruction materials play · Peace-trade infrastructure bid |
| Meta / Alphabet / Amazon | +1% each | OpenAI fresh funding round · AI sector bid intact · Risk-on extending to megacap tech |
| CoinShares (CSHRS) | Debut | First day on Nasdaq via SPAC merger · ~$1.2B valuation · Crypto equity market expanding |
| Intel (INTC) | +9% | Repurchasing 49% stake in Ireland Fab 34 from Apollo for $14.2B · Manufacturing footprint restoration signal |
| Eli Lilly (LLY) | +5% | FDA approved GLP-1 pill Foundayo · First oral GLP-1 to market · Weight-loss category expanding |
| Name | Move | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Nike (NKE) | −13% | Dow’s biggest loser · Q4 guide: sales −2% to −4% vs +1.9% expected · China −20% · War cited in guidance · JPMorgan to neutral |
| Chevron (CVX) | −3.68% | WTI sub-$100 · Oil war premium collapsing · Energy sector worst today |
| Visa (V) | −2.34% | Consumer spending caution · Cross-border volumes pressured by Middle East travel disruption |
| Energy (XLE / XOP) | −3.7% | Only sector to close Q1 positive (+37.2%) — now giving back gains as peace trade takes hold |
| RH (Restoration Hardware) | −21% | Disappointing outlook · High-end home furnishings · War-era consumer confidence collapse |
The letter opens “In the name of God, the Compassionate, the Merciful” and is addressed to those who “amid a flood of distortions and manufactured narratives, continue to seek the truth.” It is framed as an appeal to American citizens over the heads of their government — a rhetorical move that distinguishes between the US people and the US state, positioning Iran as a nation at war with a government, not a people.
Five core arguments run through the letter. First, Iran has never in its modern history chosen aggression — it has only defended itself. Second, the war serves Israel’s interests, not America’s: Pezeshkian writes that the US entered the conflict as a “proxy for Israel, influenced and manipulated by that regime,” and asks whether Israel “now aims to fight Iran to the last American soldier and the last American taxpayer dollar.” Third, “America First” is being violated, not upheld, by this war. Fourth, attacking Iran’s energy and industrial infrastructure is a war crime. Fifth, the Iranian people are united and will not be broken.
The timing is the real message. Pezeshkian published the letter hours before Trump’s 9PM address — the first time Trump will speak formally to the American people about the war. By publishing first, Iran controls the first frame. Every American who reads the letter before Trump speaks will process Trump’s words through that frame. This is sophisticated information warfare, and it is aimed directly at the American domestic political debate, not at diplomats or markets.
A critical footnote from multiple analysts: Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran’s elected president since 2024, is not the ultimate authority on war and peace in the Islamic Republic. That power rests with the Supreme Leader’s office, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and the Supreme National Security Council. Pezeshkian is a reformist who has historically favored diplomacy. He is not the hardline center of Iranian power.
This cuts two ways. On one hand, his letter may not represent Iran’s actual negotiating position — the IRGC’s operational stance is what controls Hormuz, and they have given no indication of standing down. On the other hand, the fact that a reformist president can publish a direct appeal to Americans while the IRGC continues operations suggests Tehran has deliberately built a two-track approach: official military defiance combined with a parallel soft-power appeal designed to erode American public support for the war.
While ceasefire rhetoric fills the airwaves, the US military is simultaneously sending more forces to the region. The USS George H.W. Bush carrier strike group — comprising over 6,000 sailors — is deploying to the Middle East, joining what will be three active US carriers in the theater. Thousands of soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division have also begun arriving. CENTCOM confirmed US forces have now flown over 12,000 combat flights in Operation Epic Fury.
The military math: three carriers plus 82nd Airborne is a force posture consistent with either a major escalation or a negotiated-from-strength exit. Trump has repeatedly said the US will leave “in two to three weeks” — but deploying this level of force simultaneously suggests the administration is keeping both options fully open.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Fox News there is potential for a “direct meeting at some point” between the US and Iran, and that the US could “see the finish line.” “It’s not today, it’s not tomorrow, but it is coming,” he added. These are the most optimistic public statements from a senior US official since the war began.
Against this: Pakistan’s two security sources told Reuters that Islamabad proposed a temporary ceasefire to both sides and received no response from either. The US 15-point ceasefire framework — demanding no nuclear enrichment and full Hormuz reopening — remains Iran’s official rejection. The gap between Rubio’s language and the actual negotiating reality is significant.
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer addressed the British nation on Wednesday, announcing that his foreign secretary will organize an international summit on the Strait of Hormuz aimed at restoring freedom of navigation. Starmer reiterated the UK will take only “defensive” action and will not be drawn into the war. Australian PM Anthony Albanese also delivered a national address, noting that “the economic shocks caused by this war will be with us for months” — his government halved the fuel excise on petrol and diesel for three months to cushion Australians from oil price spikes.
Separately, Yemen’s Houthi movement fired a third barrage of ballistic missiles toward Israel — their first direct involvement in the war — raising fears they could also resume Red Sea shipping attacks, creating a second maritime chokepoint alongside Hormuz.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude closed at approximately $98–99 per barrel — the first sub-$100 close since the war began on February 28. Brent fell roughly 2.4% to ~$101.80. The energy sector was the day’s worst performer at −3.7%, with the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) and SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) both down more than 3.5%. Energy was the only sector to close Q1 in positive territory, up 37.2% — it is now beginning to give those gains back.
The structural picture has not changed. The IEA mid-April supply cliff — when Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases, Russian oil exemptions, and Iranian waivers all expire simultaneously around April 19 — remains on schedule. BCA Research estimates the supply loss doubles from 5 million to 10 million barrels per day at that point. A ceasefire announced tonight does not reopen Hormuz by April 19. Paper markets are trading the peace narrative. Physical markets are not yet confirming it.
The World Food Programme warned Wednesday that 45 million additional people will fall into acute hunger globally if current conditions persist through June — bringing the total to 363 million. The WFP’s supply chain director noted that carriers are avoiding both the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal out of attack concerns, adding a full month to shipping times and dramatically increasing fuel and logistics costs.
“This is a whole disruption of the global supply chain,” said WFP supply chain director Corinne Fleischer. “What we’ve seen after COVID is that it took four to five months to get back into place once the situation stabilized.” The food security deterioration is not reversible by a ceasefire alone — supply chains take months to normalize even after hostilities end. The war’s humanitarian damage has a longer tail than its market impact.
Three significant non-war stories moved markets Wednesday, providing evidence that the domestic corporate cycle has not been entirely eclipsed by geopolitics.
Intel (+9%): The semiconductor manufacturer announced it will repurchase a 49% stake in its Ireland Fab 34 joint venture from Apollo for $14.2 billion — unwinding a 2024 deal and restoring full control of a facility central to its manufacturing of the latest Intel 3 and Intel 4 process chips. The move signals Intel’s confidence in its manufacturing roadmap and reduces Apollo’s alternative asset management exposure to semiconductor capex.
Eli Lilly (+5%): The FDA approved Foundayo, Lilly’s oral GLP-1 pill for weight loss — the first pill-form GLP-1 treatment to reach market. It begins shipping from LillyDirect on Monday. The oral format dramatically expands the addressable market beyond injectable GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic and Mounjaro.
CoinShares: The crypto investment firm began trading on the Nasdaq today via SPAC merger at a ~$1.2 billion valuation, marking the first crypto-native institutional firm to list in 2026.
The Trump address at 9PM ET lands at 9AM Thursday in Tokyo, 10AM in Seoul — right at the open of both markets. Asia will be the first market reaction to whatever Trump says. A formal ceasefire sends KOSPI +3–5%, Nikkei +2–3% at the open. A NATO withdrawal announcement triggers a European open selloff 6 hours later. Thursday’s US payrolls at 8:30AM ET add a second catalyst on the same morning.
⚠️ For informational purposes only. Not financial or investment advice.
Markets have rallied three consecutive sessions on peace signals that Iran continues to deny. If Trump’s address delivers a formal ceasefire framework, the rally extends. If it delivers vague rhetoric, escalation language, or primarily a NATO grievance speech, the two-day peace rally unwinds — compounded by the Easter long weekend gap. Institutional desks cannot reposition until Tuesday. A 9PM disappointment has 72-hour consequences.
Even a formal ceasefire tonight does not physically reopen Hormuz by April 19, when IEA reserve releases, Russian waivers, and Iranian oil exemptions all expire. BCA Research estimates global oil supply loss doubles at that point to 10 million barrels per day. Physical Hormuz clearance — mines, insurance, crew willingness — takes weeks. The paper market is pricing peace. The physical market is pricing reality. That gap closes violently if April 6 passes without reopening.
Yemen’s Houthi movement fired its third barrage of ballistic missiles toward Israel this week — their first direct involvement in Operation Epic Fury. The risk: if the Houthis resume Red Sea shipping attacks (which they suspended in 2025 under US pressure), the global shipping crisis doubles overnight. Hormuz blocks Gulf oil exports. Bab el-Mandeb blocks the Suez Canal route. Together, they represent the most severe simultaneous maritime chokepoint crisis in the history of global trade. This scenario is not priced in any asset.