THE LIQUIDITY POST — Morning Brief · Issue 25

☀️ Overnight & Morning Recap — War Day 42

8:30 AM ✓March Consumer Price Index (CPI) released: Headline +0.9% MoM / +3.3% YoY — largest monthly jump since 2022, driven almost entirely by energy. Core CPI (ex-food & energy): +0.2% MoM / +2.6% YoY — below the 0.3% consensus. Gasoline +21.2% accounted for ~75% of the headline. Markets showed little initial reaction — the soft core offset the hot headline.

OVERNIGHT ✓Asia markets closed green across the board: Nikkei +1.84% (56,924), Hang Seng +0.55% (25,893), KOSPI +1.40% (5,858), Shanghai +0.51% — all pricing Saturday’s Islamabad talks as a genuine ceasefire inflection point. Europe opened higher. US is the outlier.

OVERNIGHT ✓CoreWeave – Anthropic deal announced: CoreWeave will host Claude model deployments under a new multi-year agreement, adding Anthropic to a customer roster that now includes Meta, OpenAI, and Google. All four top AI model developers are CoreWeave customers. Stock extending Thursday’s +4% gain.

MORNING ✓Vance delegation arrives Islamabad today. Vice President JD Vance leads the US team alongside Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Iran’s delegation — Foreign Minister Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf — already on the ground since Thursday evening. Talks begin Saturday morning local time.

WATCH TODAYSoft core CPI provides Fed cover: Core at +0.2% below consensus means the Fed can look through the energy-driven headline spike. Futures markets little changed post-print. 10Y yields mixed. June cut odds remain intact — Goldman: “We believe the Fed will look through the energy-driven noise so long as these factors hold.”

-0.11%

S&P 500 · ~6,817 · Soft core limiting CPI damage mid-session

$98.45

WTI Crude · +0.59% · Hormuz still functionally closed

$4,780

Gold · -0.79% · Risk-on rotation, dollar steady

~4.30%

10Y Treasury · Steady · Soft core gave Fed cover to hold

☀️ Morning Lead — War Day 42 · Two Markets, One Morning

Editorial Desk

CPI Hot · Islamabad Tomorrow · War Day 42

Hot Headline. Soft Core. Markets Hold. The CPI Report That Could Have Broken the Rally — and Isn’t.

Friday opened with global markets already green on Islamabad optimism — Nikkei +1.84%, Hang Seng +0.55%, KOSPI +1.40%, Europe broadly higher — and the Bureau of Labor Statistics delivered a CPI report that could have derailed everything. It didn’t. Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) surged 0.9% MoM, the largest monthly jump since 2022. Gasoline alone rose 21.2% and accounted for nearly three-quarters of the entire monthly increase. On that number alone, the session could have been a rout. Then the core print landed: +0.2% MoM, one tenth of a percentage point below consensus. The market exhaled. S&P is holding near flat mid-session, Nasdaq slightly green on AI/tech. Yields barely moved.

The soft core is the key number. It tells the Fed — and the market — that the war’s inflation impact has so far stayed inside the energy category it belongs in, not yet bleeding into wages, shelter, or services. Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s co-CIO said it plainly: “We believe the Fed will look through the energy-driven noise so long as these factors hold.” That framing gives the Islamabad talks an important tailwind: if diplomacy delivers a Hormuz reopening, the March CPI spike reverses itself. The Fed never has to react. The rate-cut window stays open.

Readers of last night's After the Bell will recall the probability math: three assumptions had to hold simultaneously — ceasefire intact, CPI well-behaved, carry trades stable. Estimated probability all three hold: 17%. As of this morning, the scorecard is better than feared. The ceasefire is on Day 3 — technically intact. Core CPI came in soft — the “well-behaved” assumption is holding. Carry trades are stable. All three gates are still open. The rally has its rationale. What it needs now is Islamabad to close the deal.

Near flat mid-session. Not a crash. The soft core gave the Fed cover, AI and tech are holding green, and all three gates into Islamabad are still open. That’s the morning in one sentence.

What Opened Different Today

Headline CPI+0.9% MoM — energy-driven

Core CPI+0.2% MoM — below consensus

S&P 500~6,817 · -0.11% mid-session

10Y yield4.31% · Steady

Bitcoin~$72,788 · +2.1% ↑

Yesterday’s Probability Math

Assumption 1 — CPI well-behavedHOLDING ✓

Assumption 2 — Ceasefire intactHolding ✓

Assumption 3 — Carry stableHolding ✓

All three hold (yesterday)17% odds

All three gatesStill open

Soft core (+0.2%) kept the CPI assumption intact. Rally thesis survives. Islamabad is now the only gate that matters.

What’s Still Holding

CeasefireDay 3 · technically intact

Core CPI+0.2% — soft, Fed has cover

IslamabadVance arrives today

Asia / EuropeGreen on diplomacy bid

Bitcoin$72K+ · ceasefire override

🚀 The Narrative — War Day 42 · The AI Infrastructure Bid That Doesn’t Care About CPI

Analysis Desk

While CPI Crashes the Rate-Cut Thesis, AI Infrastructure Is Building a Parallel Economy That Runs on Contracts, Not Fed Policy.

Thursday into Friday delivered a story structurally separate from inflation or diplomacy. CoreWeave announced a new multi-year deal with Anthropic to host Claude AI model deployments — adding the fourth of the top four AI model developers to its customer roster alongside Meta, OpenAI, and Google. This came 24 hours after Meta expanded its existing CoreWeave commitment from $14.2B to $35.2B total through 2032, and the same week Amazon’s Chief Executive Officer Andy Jassy disclosed AWS AI revenue running at $15B annually with Trainium2 chips sold out. The common thread: contracted, multi-year revenue locked in by hyperscalers building infrastructure regardless of what the Federal Reserve does in June.

This is the structural counter-narrative to this morning’s CPI print. CoreWeave’s 2026 revenue guidance is $12B–$13B — 134%–153% year-over-year growth. That is not rate-sensitive. Meta is deploying $115B–$135B in capital expenditures (capex) this year regardless of whether core inflation prints at 0.2% or 0.4%. Nvidia’s Vera Rubin platform — next-generation GPU architecture — is getting its first commercial deployments through CoreWeave’s data centers. Gartner projects $1.3 trillion in global semiconductor spending in 2026, the largest growth in two decades. None of these are trades that move on an inflation number.

The distinction matters for how you read today’s mixed tape. Software names were hit Thursday — Salesforce -3.88%, IBM -2.3%, Microsoft -1.33% — because software valuations are rate-sensitive. But CoreWeave +4%, Meta +2.6%, Amazon +5.6% moved on contracted demand, not rate-cut optionality. The AI infrastructure trade is bifurcating from the broader tech narrative. An energy-driven headline CPI creates noise but not a structural rate-hike threat when core is soft. It does not cancel a $21B contract. That structural divergence is what to watch as earnings season arrives next week.

📊 Markets — Selective Green in a Red Pre-Market

Hot Headline CPI, Soft Core — Markets Hold Mid-Session. S&P Near Flat, Nasdaq Slightly Green. The Tape Is Splitting Exactly Where You’d Expect.

S&P 500 is trading near flat mid-session, Nasdaq slightly green, as the soft core print (+0.2%) takes the sting out of the 0.9% headline. AI infrastructure names — CoreWeave, Nvidia, Meta — are extending Thursday’s gains and keeping tech constructive. Rate-sensitive sectors are weighing on the broader index, but the damage is contained. Banking stocks face their real test with Goldman Sachs (April 13) and JPMorgan Chase (April 14) next week.

The 7-day winning streak — cumulative S&P gain of ~3.13% since the ceasefire-day rally — was built on three simultaneous bets. All three are still intact this morning. Bitcoin pushing toward $72,788 and Asia closing green are both signals that risk appetite is broadening, not contracting. The session’s direction now depends almost entirely on whether Islamabad weekend framing dominates the close.

Thursday Laggards — Stabilizing Friday

Software / SaaSSoft core = pressure easing

REITs / Utilities10Y steady at 4.31%

Consumer DiscretionaryStabilizing post-print

Structural Green: Contract-Driven

CoreWeave (CRWV)Anthropic deal · +2%

Meta (META)$35.2B CoreWeave total

Nvidia (NVDA)Vera Rubin deployments

Airlines (DAL/UAL)Oil sub-$100 holding

📈 Key Movers — Mid-Morning

CRWV · CoreWeave

+10%+

~$95–$103 · Anthropic Deal

Surging on Anthropic deal announced this morning — Claude model deployments added to roster that already includes Meta, OpenAI, and Google. Intraday range $91.42–$98.40, touching +14% at session highs. Motley Fool: “CoreWeave Stock Popped Again Today.” 2026 revenue guidance $12B–$13B (+134–153% YoY).

BTC · Bitcoin

~$72,788

+2.1% · Islamabad Bid Holding

Opened at $71,783, pushed through $72K on ceasefire optimism, and is now approaching $72,788 despite the hot CPI print. The diplomatic trade is clearly overriding the rate narrative — a genuine divergence signal. If Islamabad delivers Saturday, this move has room to extend.

DAL · Delta Air Lines

~$67.83

Pulled back from $74 peak

Off the ceasefire-day high of ~$74 (+12.8% on April 8). WTI near $100 + Hormuz still closed is trimming the fuel-cost relief trade. Q1 beat ($14.2B revenue record, EPS $0.64) remains the fundamental floor. Watching oil direction into the weekend for direction.

UAL · United Airlines

~$97.67

Flat · Range $93.96–$98.63

Holding near Thursday’s close, essentially flat on the day. United jumped 9.5% on the ceasefire-day rally. The same oil headwind affecting DAL applies here — Hormuz reopening is required to sustain the fuel relief narrative. Earnings due April 21, 2026.

🛡️ Oil — Back Near $100, Ceasefire Optimism Not Enough to Reopen the Strait

Commodities · WTI · Hormuz Status

WTI Closed at $98.45. Intraday Range $95–$103. The Market Knows the Strait Is Still Closed and Is Pricing It.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude opened at $98.08, traded as high as $102.64 intraday, and settled at $98.45 — a $7+ intraday swing that reflects deep uncertainty about Hormuz’s actual status. Abu Dhabi’s oil chief said plainly this week: the strait is “not open.” Only a handful of vessels have transited since the ceasefire. Iran’s reported plan to levy a $1/barrel cryptocurrency toll on tankers adds friction — shipping companies won’t commit to transit without a clear protocol from Iranian authorities. South Korea, with 26 vessels stranded, sent a special envoy to Tehran yesterday specifically to negotiate safe passage terms. Iraq confirmed no Iraqi ships have crossed since ceasefire day one.

The oil market’s message is clear: it is not pricing a full Hormuz reopening. Goldman Sachs’ Q4 2026 base case target of $67 assumes full reopening and mine clearing. We are a long way from that scenario. The structural gap between current price (~$98) and Goldman’s target is the war premium the market is still holding. Islamabad Saturday is the next catalyst — either accelerating or freezing the unwinding of that premium. The energy gate is confirmed: oil-driven inflation is in the data. Whether it stays there depends on whether Hormuz opens.

💵 Capital Flows — Where Money Is Moving This Morning

Flows · Mid-Morning · April 10

CPI Broke the Rate Narrative. Flows Are Splitting on That Fault Line.

↑IN — AI Infrastructure (CRWV, NVDA, META)

Contracted multi-year revenue divorced from the rate cycle. CoreWeave/Anthropic + Meta $35.2B = structural demand floor not dependent on Fed policy. Not rate-cut-dependent. Trades on contracts, not FOMC calendars.

↑ IN

↑IN — Bitcoin / Crypto (Islamabad bid)

BTC $72,788 +2.1% against hot CPI. Ceasefire and Islamabad optimism overriding the rate narrative. ETF inflows structurally intact ($471M on April 6). Signal: diplomatic optimism > inflation concern in crypto this session.

↑ IN

↑IN — Short-Duration Treasuries (2Y, T-bills)

Hot headline CPI = precautionary positioning in short duration. Despite soft core, some duration caution remains given the headline print. 2Y yields ticked higher. Money market funds and T-bill ETFs see modest inflows as investors stay near the front of the curve ahead of Islamabad weekend.

↑ IN

↓OUT — Rate-Sensitive Tech / Software (SaaS)

Salesforce -3.88%, IBM -2.3%, Microsoft -1.33% Thursday on rate-hike fears. Friday’s soft core CPI stabilized the sector — Thursday’s moves were not extended. Key distinction: AI infrastructure outperforms; software is rate-sensitive but soft core removed the acute pressure.

↓ OUT

↓OUT — Energy Stocks

Softer inflation outlook + Islamabad optimism = oil narrative less supportive. WTI +0.59% but energy sector rotation continued as ceasefire holds. Investors trimming war premium from pure-play energy names ahead of the weekend.

↓ OUT

🌎 Global Markets & EM — Asia Closed Green. Europe Open Higher. US Is the Outlier.

Global · Mid-Morning · April 10

Market	Status	Context & Impact
🇯🇵 Japan (Nikkei 225) Asia · Closed	+1.84%	Islamabad optimism + yen stability drove the bid. Japan is one of Asia’s most oil-dependent economies — energy import relief if Hormuz reopens is structurally bullish. Nikkei closed at 56,924.11 (+1.84%). Nikkei year-to-date +5.5%, the best-performing major index globally through April 6.
🇭🇰 Hong Kong (Hang Seng) & China Asia · Closed	+0.55%	Strongest Asian gainer. Hang Seng closed at 25,893.54 (+0.55%). China liquidity support + ceasefire trade + AI infrastructure names listed in Hong Kong contributing. Shanghai Composite closed at 3,986.22 (+0.51%) — China broadly green on Islamabad optimism and AI demand.
🇰🇷 South Korea (KOSPI) Asia · Closed	+1.40%	Largest percentage gainer in Asia. Seoul sent a special envoy to Tehran to negotiate safe passage for 26 stranded vessels. Samsung and SK Hynix bounced on AI semiconductor demand. South Korea is acutely exposed to Hormuz as a major oil importer — ceasefire is directly bullish for its economy.
🇪🇺 Europe (DAX, CAC 40, FTSE) Europe · Closed	DAX +0.20% CAC +0.01% FTSE -0.03%	DAX 23,803.95 (+0.20%) led on Islamabad optimism and energy relief expectations. CAC 40 8,259.60 near flat (+0.01%). FTSE 100 10,600.53 essentially unchanged (-0.03%) — UK energy sector exposure creating a natural hedge. STOXX Europe 600 closed at 614.84 (+0.37%). European markets held gains through the session despite hot US CPI data released mid-morning ET.
🇸🇦 Gulf / Saudi Arabia Closed	Cautious	Tadawul tracking ceasefire uncertainty. Gulf markets most directly exposed to Hormuz status. Abu Dhabi’s oil chief confirmed the strait is “not open.” Saudi East-West pipeline (Hormuz bypass route) remains constrained after drone strike. Regional stability contingent on Islamabad outcome Saturday.

₿ Digital Assets — Bitcoin Rising Against the Macro Tide

Crypto · Mid-Morning · War Day 42

BTC Near $72,788 as the Market Holds. The Soft Core + Islamabad Bid Is a Genuine Risk-On Signal.

BTC · Bitcoin

~$72,788

+2.1% · Islamabad bid holding

Opened at $71,783, pushed through $72K on ceasefire optimism. The soft core CPI (+0.2%) removed the rate-hike fear that could have reversed the move. Now approaching $72,788. Diplomatic optimism + soft core = risk-on combination heading into Islamabad Saturday.

ETH · Ethereum

$2,210

Flat · Near open

Opened at $2,189.99, tracking near flat through the session. ETH less reactive to geopolitical sentiment than BTC. BlackRock ETHA and staking-enabled Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) products providing structural support. $11.6B cumulative ETF inflows through early April 2026.

ETF FLOWS · Structural

$471M

April 6 · Highest since Feb 25

Bitcoin ETF inflows on April 6 hit $471M — highest single-day since February 25. BlackRock IBIT at $54B assets under management. Institutional demand is the floor that keeps BTC from capitulating on macro headwinds. The ETF structure has reduced BTC’s correlation to risk-off events.

CRWV · AI & Crypto Link

+10%+

Anthropic Deal · Touching +14%

CoreWeave’s GPU infrastructure underpins AI model training and inference — adjacent to the blockchain infrastructure world and increasingly relevant as AI and crypto converge on compute demand. The neocloud model (GPU rental for AI) is structurally aligned with the digital asset infrastructure thesis.

The key read this morning: Bitcoin approaching $72,788 on the same session as a hot headline CPI is a genuine signal. The soft core (+0.2%) removed the rate-hike fear that would have reversed the move. BTC is up 2.1%. The most likely explanation: crypto is pricing the diplomatic resolution scenario — Islamabad tomorrow, potential Hormuz reopening, ceasefire holding — as a larger catalyst than June Fed meeting odds. If Islamabad delivers, the ceasefire-bid in crypto has room to run further. If it breaks down publicly, expect an immediate sharp reversal from $72,788.

🌏 Diplo — Delegations In Place. Tomorrow Is the Gate.

War Day 42 · Islamabad Eve

Vance Arrives Islamabad Today. Iran’s Delegation Already There. Lebanon Remains the Fault Line. The Watch Will Cover Saturday Live.

The US delegation — Vice President JD Vance, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner — arrives in Islamabad today. Iran’s delegation, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, has been on the ground since Thursday evening. Both delegations confirmed. Talks begin Saturday morning local time. Pakistan’s capital remains in security lockdown, with shipping containers sealing off the Red Zone. These are the highest-level US-Iran direct contacts since the 1979 revolution.

Three unresolved fault lines entering the room: (1) Lebanon — Hezbollah resumed rocket attacks into northern Israel on Thursday. Israel struck a Lebanese bridge the same day. Iran insists Lebanon must be included in ceasefire scope; the US and Israel say it never was. (2) Uranium enrichment — Trump’s stated non-negotiable red line. Iran publicly insists enrichment is a national right. White House claims Iran privately signaled it would hand over stockpiles; Tehran has not confirmed this. (3) Hormuz tolls — Iran’s reported plan to levy a $1/barrel cryptocurrency charge on tankers. Trump warned against it Thursday. No protocol for safe passage has been published by Iran.

The ceasefire is technically on Day 3. The talks have not yet started. TLP will publish The Watch edition live as Islamabad developments break Saturday.

🔴 What the Street Is Saying — Institutional Calls · April 10

Research Desk

Institutional · Morning Notes

CPI Hotter Than Hoped. AI Infra Structural. Banks on Deck. Islamabad the Wild Card.

FirmCallView

JPMorgan Research
Fixed Income & Macro Strategy Soft core CPI (+0.2% MoM, below consensus) gives the Fed room to look through the headline energy spike. March data captured the $110+ oil month but core remained contained — no broad inflation pass-through yet. Q1 bank earnings (JPM April 14) will be the first real read on whether consumer credit is absorbing the war premium. Dimon’s tone on credit quality and NII guidance is the signal to watch above the EPS number itself. Cautious

Goldman Sachs Equity Research
Technology & AI Infrastructure AI infrastructure capex cycle is structurally divorced from the rate narrative. CoreWeave, Nvidia, and Meta deals confirm demand is contracted and multi-year. The AI infrastructure trade bifurcates from rate-sensitive software. Constructive on CRWV, NVDA, META regardless of near-term macro noise. M&A backlog at 4-year high provides Q1 earnings cushion for GS (reports April 13). Constructive

Scott Helfstein, GlobalX
Investment Strategy “Inflation is a little hot, but reasonably stable. Iran may shift some consumption and investment patterns, but the potential demand destruction is probably not meaningful enough to matter as of now. We think earnings and fundamentals win out.” Acknowledges the CPI beat without calling it a structural break — frames the war’s inflation impact as transient rather than a 2022-style shock. Balanced

📅 What to Watch — Today Through April 14

🔴 War & Diplomacy

Islamabad Talks · Saturday April 11. Vance leads. Iran’s Araghchi and Ghalibaf attending. Key test: do both sides agree on Lebanon scope and Hormuz reopening timeline? A communiqué with agreed language = S&P +1.5%+ Monday. A public breakdown = -2%+. TLP publishes The Watch live as developments break.

Hormuz Toll Protocol. Iran’s reported $1/barrel cryptocurrency toll plan is unresolved. Trump warned against it Thursday. No shipping company commits to Hormuz transit without a clear protocol. Watch for any Iranian statement on safe passage terms over the weekend.

Lebanon · Ongoing. Hezbollah rockets resumed Thursday. Israeli strikes continuing. US State Department to host Israel-Lebanon talks next week. Lebanon says no negotiations under fire. Ceasefire technical violations are accumulating.

📉 Earnings & Macro

Goldman Sachs (GS) · Monday April 13. Q1 earnings. M&A advisory backlog at 4-year high. Investment banking fees expected +26% YoY (Zacks). Watch for any commentary on deal flow pauses from geopolitical uncertainty, and whether war-period volatility boosted trading revenue.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) · Tuesday April 14. The flagship consumer credit and Net Interest Income (NII) read. EPS consensus $5.32–$5.50. Jamie Dimon’s macro commentary is the real signal — how does he frame the war’s impact on credit quality and the consumer? Guidance moves the broader market.

March Core PCE · Sunday April 26. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. If it mirrors the headline energy spike rather than today’s soft core, the June rate cut is at risk. Will determine FOMC May 28–29 language and the full-year rate cut narrative. The next major macro gate after Islamabad.

⚠️ Risks on the Radar — Issue 25

Inflation Spiral Locks Fed

Headline CPI +0.9% MoM confirmed today — though core +0.2% was soft. If March Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) on April 26 mirrors this, June and July cuts are off the table. Fed hold extends into Q3/Q4 2026. Polymarket shows 32.5% odds of zero cuts in 2026. Some Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members have floated insurance hike language. Base case Fed lock odds: 40%.

Islamabad Breakdown

Lebanon inclusion, uranium enrichment, and Hormuz tolls are three unresolved structural gaps. If Saturday produces no agreed language — or a public breakdown — ceasefire confidence collapses. WTI back to $110+, equities -2.5% Monday open, Bitcoin reversal from $72K. Base case failure odds: 40%.

Hormuz Toll Escalation

Iran’s reported $1/barrel cryptocurrency toll on tanker transit is a de facto partial closure even if the ceasefire holds. If shipping companies refuse to pay or Iran enforces tolls unilaterally, the market reads it as a new Hormuz blockade. Oil spikes, inflation compounds, today’s CPI print looks tame by comparison. Base case odds: 30%.

📖 Key Terms — Issue 25

Glossary · Morning Brief Edition

Core CPI

Consumer Price Index minus food and energy prices. The Federal Reserve watches core because food and energy are volatile — stripping them reveals underlying inflation persistence. Today’s core print of +0.2% MoM is the market-stabilizing number: it says underlying inflation remains contained despite the energy shock. Consensus was +0.3% — the miss to the downside is what kept markets from selling off. The Fed can credibly look through a gasoline-driven headline when core is this well-behaved.

Neocloud

A new class of cloud provider specializing in GPU-heavy artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, distinct from general-purpose clouds like AWS or Azure. CoreWeave is the leading example. Neoclouds rent out Nvidia graphics processing units (GPUs) to AI model developers who need massive compute capacity. Their model is contract-based and capital-intensive, funded by large debt offerings. CoreWeave holds $21B+ in long-term debt.

Hormuz Toll

Iran’s reported plan to levy a $1/barrel cryptocurrency fee on oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Even with a ceasefire technically in place, this de facto toll creates new friction. Shipping companies need a published protocol before committing vessels. The charge on a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) carrying ~2M barrels translates to roughly $2M per ship.

Rate Cut Odds (June 2026)

The market-implied probability that the Federal Reserve cuts its benchmark rate at the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Derived from 30-day fed funds futures via CME FedWatch. Today’s soft core CPI (+0.2%, below the 0.3% consensus) kept June cut odds largely intact — markets showed little reaction post-print. If March PCE (April 26) also prints soft core, the June cut window stays open. If PCE core surprises hot, odds could compress and push first cut to September.

Net Interest Income (NII)

The profit a bank earns from the spread between what it receives on loans versus what it pays on deposits. At the current Fed funds rate of 3.50%–3.75%, NII is in a structurally favorable zone for large banks. Soft core CPI this morning means the Fed keeps its options open, but headline energy inflation could sustain near-term rate caution. NII benefits from any extended hold. Watch for JPMorgan’s full-year NII guidance on April 14 as confirmation of whether the bank narrative holds.