Monday April 13 opened ugly and closed historic. At 9:30AM ET, stocks fell as investors absorbed the naval blockade announcement — S&P -0.40%, Dow -0.71%, oil +8% at $104. Then at 10AM ET the blockade started and nothing kinetic happened. The IRGC did not fire. US warships enforced without incident. And sometime mid-morning, Trump told reporters: “We’ve been called by the other side. They’d like to make a deal very badly.” That sentence did what 45 days of war, a ceasefire, a summit, and a blockade could not: it sent the S&P to its highest close since the night before the war began.
The S&P 500 closed at 6,886.24, up 1.02% — erasing its entire decline since Operation Epic Fury began on February 28. The Nasdaq gained 1.23%, driven by the biggest single-day surge in software stocks in nearly a year. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon’s comment on the earnings call that the software selloff had been “overstated” combined with Iran’s deal signal to trigger a wave of rotation back into names that had been punished for six weeks. The Dow recovered from a -400 point deficit to close +301 points. Russell 2000 +1.44%. Oil pared from +8% to approximately +3% as the deal signal hit. The blockade’s logic — economic pressure forces Iran to the table — appeared to be working within hours of its start.
Ed Yardeni, who called the bottom on March 30, wrote Monday: “Financial markets may be learning to live with the war in the Middle East, as they have with the war between Ukraine and Russia.” Whether that is prescient or premature depends entirely on whether Iran’s call translates into a real negotiating framework. No date, no venue, no format has been announced. But the call happened. And the market believed it.
| Asset | Close | Chg (pts/$) | % Change | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 6,886.24 | +69.35 | +1.02% | Highest close since before the war began. Entire war decline erased. Iran deal signal + software surge + blockade holding orderly combined. |
| Dow Jones | 48,218.25 | +301.68 | +0.63% | Recovered from -400 point (-0.9%) deficit. GS drag (-1.9% despite earnings beat) kept the Dow from matching Nasdaq’s performance. |
| Nasdaq | 23,183.74 | +281.00 | +1.23% | Software biggest single-day gain in nearly a year. Oracle +13%, Palantir +3%+. Solomon’s “selloff overstated” comment triggered the rotation. |
| Russell 2000 | N/A | N/A | +1.44% | Small caps led all major indices. Risk-on rotation broadest of the session. Small caps most sensitive to deal-signal optimism. |
| VIX | ~20 | +0.77 | ~+4% | Spiked to 21.58 intraday at open on blockade. Then fell steadily as Iran deal signal hit and equity rally accelerated. Closed approximately 20 — up from Friday’s 19.23 but well off the intraday high. |
| WTI Crude | ~$97 | ~−$1.45 | ~−1.5% | Opened +8% at $104 on blockade. Pared sharply as Iran deal signal hit mid-morning — oil reversing the blockade premium in real time. Closed below Friday’s $98.45 close as deal optimism dominated. |
| Brent Crude | ~$98 | ~+$3 | ~+3% | Tracking WTI. Bloomberg noted Brent at ~$98 at close, up 3%, paring from a +7.8% morning peak. Iran deal signal the proximate cause of the reversal. |
| Gold | ~$4,767 | ~−$20 | −0.43% | Down slightly. Risk-on rotation dominating safe-haven demand for a second consecutive session. Dollar also easing off its blockade-morning peak. |
| 10Y Treasury | ~4.30% | ~flat | ~flat | Approximately unchanged. No flight-to-safety bond bid. Reinforces the “deal optimism” read — rates not pricing renewed war escalation. |
| DXY (Dollar) | ~98.56 | ~−0.37 | −0.37% | Dollar eased from its blockade-morning safe-haven spike. Deal signal = reduced haven demand. DXY falling alongside oil paring is a consistent risk-on signal. |
| Goldman Sachs (GS) | ~$558 | ~−$11 | −1.9% | Beat on EPS ($17.55 vs $16.47) and revenue ($17.23B vs $16.95B). Record equities quarter. Fell on FICC miss and classic sell-the-news dynamic. See Goldman section. |
Monday’s session is one of the most instructive of the war period. At open, the blockade movie was playing: stocks down, oil +8%, VIX spiking to 21.58, airlines falling 2%+, energy names rallying on sustained supply disruption. By mid-morning, the deal movie started: Trump’s “they called us” comment triggered a rotation that erased every loss and then some. The session bifurcated cleanly along one variable — did you believe the call was real?
The software surge is the cleanest market read. Oracle +13%. Palantir +3%+. Microsoft +3.64%. Salesforce +4.76%. These are rate-sensitive software names that had been punished for six weeks on war-driven inflation fears. Their single-session surge signals that at least a cohort of institutional money is now treating the Iran conflict as closer to resolution than to escalation. Goldman CEO Solomon’s comment that the software selloff was “overstated” provided fundamental cover for the rotation — but the Iran call was the catalyst.
The oil paring is equally clean. WTI opened at $104 (+8%) and closed at approximately $97 (+3%). That $7 intraday reversal is the market repricing the blockade from “permanent escalation” to “negotiating tactic.” KKM Financial’s thesis from Sunday night — that traders would view the blockade as leverage rather than policy — was confirmed in real time on Monday.
The single sentence that moved markets on Monday came from Trump at approximately mid-morning ET. Speaking to reporters, the president said his administration had been contacted by Iran and that Tehran wants to make a deal “very badly.” He provided no further detail — no date, no venue, no format, no next meeting confirmed. Iran has not publicly confirmed making any such contact. The statement is unverifiable and may be characteristically optimistic from a president who has repeatedly claimed impending victory throughout the war. And yet the market added roughly 1.5% from that moment to close.
The market’s read is rational even without confirmation. The blockade began at 10AM ET without a kinetic exchange. Iran did not fire on US warships as threatened. The IRGC’s posture was verbal, not military. And Trump’s claim of an Iranian outreach — whether or not precisely accurate — signals that the US administration believes diplomatic pressure is working. Pakistan confirmed over the weekend it would attempt to restart talks “in coming days.” The combination of an orderly blockade, an Iranian outreach signal, and Pakistan’s diplomatic channel remaining open is materially more positive than the scenario priced at Sunday’s -0.94% futures open.
What markets need next: a confirmed date and format for resumed talks. Until that exists, Trump’s call claim is a sentiment catalyst, not a structural development. Tuesday’s JPMorgan earnings and macro data will determine whether Monday’s session was a sustainable re-rating or a one-day relief rally on ambiguous information.
Goldman Sachs kicked off Q1 earnings season with its second-highest quarterly profit on record. EPS came in at $17.55 — a 6.56% beat against the $16.47 consensus. Revenue of $17.23 billion beat the $16.95 billion estimate. The equities trading desk delivered record quarterly revenues, driven by clients repositioning portfolios amid war-driven volatility. Asset and Wealth Management contributed $4.1 billion. CEO David Solomon: “Goldman Sachs delivered very strong performance for our shareholders this quarter, even as market conditions became more volatile. The geopolitical landscape remains very complex — so disciplined risk management must remain core to how we operate.”
The miss that mattered: Fixed Income, Currencies and Commodities (FICC) revenues came in below expectations. FICC is typically Goldman’s largest single revenue line and the one most analysts were watching for war-period windfall from energy and rates volatility. The shortfall against elevated expectations — combined with the stock already up 87% over the past year — triggered a textbook sell-the-news response. GS stock fell 1.9% despite the headline beat. The forward guidance also introduced caution: Q2 EPS projected at $13.75, Q3 at $14.06 — a significant step-down from Q1’s $17.55, reflecting Solomon’s acknowledgement that M&A clients are in wait-and-see mode while the war continues.
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer confirmed Monday that the United Kingdom is not supporting the US naval blockade of Iranian ports and will not participate. “We will not get dragged in,” he told reporters, adding that the UK continues to support freedom of navigation and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz but opposes the blockade framework specifically. This is the first formal break by a major US ally with the blockade operation since it was announced Sunday.
The UK’s position matters for three reasons. First, it undermines the multilateral framing Trump used — claiming “other countries will be involved” with the blockade. Second, the UK has vessels and naval assets in the region that will now explicitly not participate in enforcement. Third, it signals that European allies — who depend heavily on Hormuz energy flows — may prioritize the diplomatic track over the economic coercion track. Israel-Lebanon talks are scheduled for Tuesday in Washington, a diplomatic development that could ease one of Iran’s core Islamabad demands.
Trump said Iran called wanting a deal “very badly.” Iran has not confirmed this. If Tehran publicly denies making any such contact — or characterizes it differently — Monday’s 1.5% rally from the deal signal reverses at Tuesday’s open. The entire session was built on an unverified presidential statement. That is the primary fragility in today’s close.
Monday’s blockade held orderly. Tuesday is day two. The IRGC’s threat of “severe force” against US warships remains in effect. Iran has vowed to target all Persian Gulf ports if its own energy hubs are struck. A single incident overnight or early Tuesday — a drone, a warning shot, a tanker detention — would erase Monday’s gains before the bank earnings even print.
If JPMorgan’s Q1 data shows $4+ gasoline arriving in revolving credit delinquency rates, Dimon will say so. A pessimistic Dimon macro call on Tuesday morning — combined with hot March PPI data — would shift the narrative from “markets learning to live with the war” to “consumers starting to break under it.” The consumer credit data for March is the first full read on the war’s household impact.