On War Day 47, the S&P 500 closed at 7,022.95 — a fresh all-time high, surpassing the January 28 record of 7,002.28. The Nasdaq closed at 24,016.02 — also a record closing high, extending its win streak to 11 consecutive sessions and completing what CNBC noted is the fastest oversold-to-overbought Relative Strength Index (RSI) reversal since the early 1980s. Both indexes set simultaneous all-time highs for the first time in 2026. The S&P has now fully erased all losses incurred since the war with Iran began on February 28. The recovery took exactly 47 days from the start of the conflict to a new record.
The session’s character followed the week’s established pattern: technology and communication services led, while the Dow (-0.15%) lagged on energy and industrial weakness. Bank of America surged on its strongest trading quarter in 15 years. Morgan Stanley crossed $20 billion in quarterly revenue for the first time in its history. Tesla added 7% on an artificial intelligence (AI) chip update from Chief Executive Elon Musk. Meanwhile, President Trump — in the same Fox Business interview where he declared the war “very close to over” — threatened to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and confirmed the Department of Justice is investigating the central bank’s headquarters renovation. That is the structural risk sitting directly underneath today’s record close.
The market is pricing two simultaneous theses: war resolution inbound, and a patient Fed. Both could be right. But Trump’s Fox Business interview today put the second thesis under direct pressure. Powell’s term expires May 15 — 30 days from today. Kevin Warsh, the nominated successor, is historically hawkish. The ATH was made on the assumption that the Fed does not change direction. That assumption has 30 days of shelf life.
| Asset | Close | Change | % Chg | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,022.95 | +55.57 | +0.80% | All-time high. Previous record: 7,002.28 (Jan. 28, intraday). 10th positive session out of 11. War recovery fully complete. |
| Nasdaq | 24,016.02 | +376.93 | +1.59% | Record closing high. Previous record from October 2025. 11-day win streak — fastest oversold-to-overbought RSI swing since the early 1980s. Nasdaq-100 also set an ATH. |
| Dow Jones | 48,463.72 | −72.27 | −0.15% | Lagged again. Energy and industrials weighed. Caterpillar -3.09%, Merck -1.70%, JPMorgan -1.68%. Microsoft +4.62%, Salesforce +3.55%, Apple +2.91% offset losses. |
| Russell 2000 | ~2,720 | +0.30% | +0.30% | Small caps modest gains. Less participation in the AI-driven tech rally. Watch for rotation signal if large-cap tech consolidates. |
| VIX | ~17.74 | −0.62 | −3.38% | Lowest close since before the war began. Has fallen on 10 of the last 12 sessions. War peak: 31.05 (March 27). Sentiment: CNN Fear & Greed Index at Neutral, rebounding from Extreme Fear in March. |
| WTI Crude | $91.18 | −$0.10 | −0.11% | Essentially flat. Still ~$24 above Goldman’s full-reopening Q4 target of $67. Hormuz not fully open. War premium residual intact. |
| Gold | ~$4,821 | −$28 | −0.59% | Risk-on rotation continues. VIX at pre-war lows = safe-haven bid softening. Still +45%+ year-over-year. Real yields stable post-soft core CPI. |
| 10Y Treasury | 4.28% | +2.5bps | — | Slight yield rise as equities hit ATH. Risk-on rotation pressuring bonds marginally. Fed transition uncertainty (Warsh) adding a modest term premium bid. |
| Bitcoin | ~$74,437 | +$368 | +0.50% | Holding near recent highs. ETF structural inflows intact. BlackRock IBIT at $54B+ AUM. War-end optimism sustaining the risk-on bid in digital assets. |
The simultaneous S&P and Nasdaq all-time highs today are more than a headline. The S&P erasing its war losses entirely in 47 days is historically fast — faster than the 2022 post-invasion recovery, faster than most geopolitical shock recoveries since World War II. Tom Lee at Fundstrat captured the market’s logic plainly: “The market does have a really good way of discounting outcomes. And I think the reason it’s going up is we’re gonna end up with a favorable outcome.” That is correct if the outcome is war end + Hormuz reopening + patient Fed. It is wrong if any of those three assumptions breaks.
The Nasdaq’s 11-day streak is the technical story of the week. The RSI crossed from oversold (March 30) to overbought in just 11 trading days — the fastest such swing since the early 1980s. RSI crossovers at this speed do not predict reversals in isolation, but they do signal that the pace of the rally has been historically extreme. Schwab’s Nathan Peterson flagged it plainly: “We are overbought in the short-term and expect sideways consolidation.” If bulls hold above the 7,000 level on the S&P, he sees a more sustained run. If they fail to hold it, the RSI cross becomes the first warning shot. Watch Thursday’s open closely.
The session’s internal structure was not uniformly bullish. The Dow fell -0.15%. Energy, materials, industrials, and utilities all underperformed. Less than half of S&P 500 components advanced. The ATH was driven by megacap tech and AI-adjacent names — Microsoft +4.62%, Salesforce +3.55%, Apple +2.91%, Broadcom +3%+, ServiceNow +7.3%, Oracle +4.2%. The war recovery is real; the breadth is selective.
Bank of America reported Q1 earnings per share of $1.11, beating the $1.01 consensus by 10 cents. Revenue reached $30.43 billion against estimates of $29.93 billion. The headline driver: equities trading revenue surged 30% to $2.83 billion — the bank’s best trading quarter in 15 years — topping Street estimates by roughly $350 million. The geopolitical environment roiled markets and created a sustained volatility windfall across its equities franchise. Investment banking revenue climbed 21% to $1.8 billion. Net interest income (NII) rose 9% to $15.9 billion and beat expectations on higher loan and deposit balances and fixed-rate asset repricing. BAC raised full-year NII guidance to 6–8% growth, up from its prior 5–7% range. Stock +1.5% on the day. Wells Fargo’s Mike Mayo cited “a surge in capital markets activity and improving efficiency” as the key drivers.
Morgan Stanley delivered a historic first quarter. EPS of $3.43 beat the $3.02 consensus by 14%. Revenue reached $20.58 billion — surpassing estimates of $19.72 billion and marking the first time the firm has crossed the $20 billion threshold in a single quarter. Equities trading jumped 25% to a record $5.15 billion, beating expectations by approximately $450 million. Fixed income revenue rose 29% to $3.36 billion, roughly $540 million above estimates, aided by energy market volatility in commodities trading. Investment banking revenue surged 36% to $2.12 billion. Notably, Morgan Stanley edged out Goldman Sachs in fixed income trading this quarter — a reversal of the usual pecking order. Total client assets in wealth management exceeded $9 trillion. Stock +2%+ in early trading. CEO Ted Pick characterized the environment as an “adolescent moment” for private credit — real, growing, but needing more rigorous oversight.
All six of the largest US banks — Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley — delivered broadly solid Q1 results this week. The common thread: war-period volatility created a trading revenue windfall across equities and fixed income desks. Goldman led with record equities trading but missed fixed income (FICC) by $910 million vs. estimates — explaining why GS shares fell 2% Monday even on a headline beat. JPMorgan beat on EPS and NII; Dimon’s commentary was cautious on geopolitical risk and credit quality. Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser: “Revenue up 14% and net income growing 42%.” Markets revenue crossed $7 billion. The week’s takeaway: the fee-based model — trading, advisory, asset management — has replaced net interest income as the primary bank growth engine in the neutral-rate environment. Q2 guidance and credit quality commentary will tell us whether the war’s economic drag has started reaching consumer loan books.
🔴 Live Nation / Ticketmaster: A New York federal jury found the company has an illegal monopoly over major concert venues. 34 states had filed suit. LYV −3% after the verdict crossed in late afternoon trading. The company also owns Ticketmaster. The verdict opens the door to a breakup or structural remedy proceeding.
In the same Fox Business interview where he declared the Iran war “very close to over,” President Trump escalated his confrontation with the Federal Reserve. Asked about Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Trump said: “He’s doing a bad job.” When asked if he would fire Powell if Powell stays on as a governor after his chair term ends: “Then I’ll have to fire him.” Powell’s term as chair expires May 15 — exactly 30 days from today. He has two years remaining as a governor, which would give him a seat at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) table after his chair tenure ends. Trump wants him gone entirely.
The Department of Justice is also investigating cost overruns on the renovation of the Federal Reserve’s Washington headquarters — a probe Trump confirmed he wants to continue. This is not a standard inspector general review; it is a criminal probe of the central bank, which, if pursued aggressively, could compromise the institutional independence the Fed has maintained for over a century. Trump has nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as Powell’s successor. Warsh, a Fed governor from 2006 to 2011, is known for dissenting against additional quantitative easing (QE) during the 2010 recovery — a hawkish track record that stands in contrast to the patient, data-dependent posture markets are currently pricing in.
The market today reached an all-time high on three simultaneous assumptions: war ending, Fed patient, AI cycle continuing. The Fed assumption has 30 days of shelf life. If Warsh signals he would tighten policy faster than Powell’s trajectory, or if the DOJ probe creates institutional paralysis at the FOMC’s May 28–29 meeting, the ATH story gets complicated quickly. The Dow’s -0.15% underperformance today — on a day both the S&P and Nasdaq hit records — may be a preview of how rate-sensitive, traditional businesses will absorb a hawkish Fed transition.
The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book — its periodic summary of economic conditions across all 12 districts — released today described US economic activity continuing at a “slight-to-modest pace” across most regions. The war with Iran was identified as generating “a new wave of uncertainty and higher energy costs.” Businesses reported that low- and moderate-income consumers were particularly hard hit, with widespread trading-down behavior and a rising number of assistance requests. Manufacturing activity in New York State did pick up in April per the Empire State Manufacturing Survey — a single positive data point in an otherwise cautious report.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) went further. Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva this week downgraded the IMF’s global growth forecast and warned that a prolonged conflict in Iran could trigger a global recession. The IMF’s concern is the energy transmission mechanism: oil at $90+ sustained for multiple quarters compresses consumer purchasing power globally, especially in import-dependent emerging markets and energy-intensive industrial economies. The Beige Book and the IMF are pointing at the same risk from different altitudes — the Beige Book at current conditions, the IMF at the trajectory if the war doesn’t end. Today’s ATH assumes the IMF’s downside scenario does not materialize. The Islamabad talks and a formal Hormuz reopening are what stands between current optimism and that scenario.
In the Fox Business interview that also contained his Powell threats, Trump said the Iran war is “very close to over.” A White House official told CNBC Tuesday that a second round of direct US-Iran negotiations is under discussion, though nothing has been officially scheduled. Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir — who played a central role in brokering the April 8 ceasefire and who greeted Vance in Islamabad on Saturday — has arrived in Tehran to help secure an extension of the two-week ceasefire framework. His presence in the Iranian capital is the clearest diplomatic signal of the week.
WTI closed today at $91.18 — roughly $24 above Goldman’s full-reopening base case of $67. That $24 gap is entirely the residual war premium. Hormuz is not fully open. Mine-clearing has begun but tanker traffic remains a fraction of the pre-war 100+ ships per day. The market is pricing war-end optimism but not war-end reality. A formal second-round agreement or Hormuz reopening communiqué would be the single largest single-day catalyst remaining in this cycle — potentially sending WTI toward $80 in a session, with corresponding S&P upside on inflation relief.
Powell’s term expires May 15. Warsh’s hawkish track record (dissented against QE in 2010) stands in contrast to the patient Fed the market is pricing. If Warsh signals faster tightening or the DOJ probe creates FOMC dysfunction at the May 28–29 meeting, risk assets reprice. Today’s ATH was made on the assumption of a patient central bank. That assumption has 30 days of shelf life.
The Nasdaq crossed from oversold to overbought in 11 trading days — fastest since the early 1980s. RSI above 70 does not predict a crash, but historically extreme reversal speeds are followed by consolidation more often than further acceleration. Schwab sees sideways action. Less than half of S&P components advanced today despite the index’s ATH. Narrow breadth at record highs is a caution signal.
WTI is still $24 above Goldman’s full-reopening target of $67. Hormuz is not formally open. April and May CPI data will absorb the full energy spike from March. Schwab’s warning stands: the lag between oil prices and core CPI is real. If Hormuz remains restricted past mid-May, the soft-core insulation thesis collapses into the June FOMC meeting — right as a new Fed chair is taking the seat.