The deal was supposed to happen Sunday. It did not. President Trump emerged Monday morning saying negotiations are “proceeding nicely,” while reiterating that fighting would resume if no agreement is reached. Secretary of State Rubio, speaking to reporters in New Delhi, offered the most candid read available: “We thought we might have some news last night. Maybe today.” Eighty-seven days into Operation Epic Fury, the announcement that formally ends the war remains outstanding.
“We thought we might have some news last night. Maybe today.” — Secretary of State Marco Rubio, New Delhi, May 25, 2026
Markets are not waiting for the pen to meet paper. European equities opened sharply higher — the STOXX 50 up 1.1% to a three-month high, the broader STOXX 600 gaining 0.6% — while Brent crude fell as much as 5.2% to $98.12, its steepest single-session deal-driven decline of the war. The dollar softened. Bitcoin held above $77,000. With US markets closed for Memorial Day, the global session is functioning as a referendum on deal probability. For now, the verdict is a cautious yes.
One new complication arrived overnight. Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps General Amir Hatami threatened a pre-emptive strike if the United States continued what he characterized as harsh statements, injecting a fresh risk tail into negotiations that had appeared to be narrowing. Polymarket odds for a formal agreement by May 31 fell to 25% on the news. The arc from “largely negotiated” on Saturday to “maybe today” on Monday is not the compression markets anticipated. The gap between signal and signature is still open, and Tuesday’s US open is watching.
The 14-clause memorandum of understanding (MOU) framework appears largely aligned on its core architecture: a 60-day ceasefire extension, Iran’s commitment to never pursue nuclear weapons, and the principle of Hormuz reopening. What remains contested sits in the operational detail — and operational detail is where previous frameworks have collapsed.
Three sticking points remain publicly unresolved. First, the timeline for sanctions relief: when do frozen Iranian assets unfreeze, and conditioned on what verified steps? Second, post-deal Hormuz governance: the US has reportedly insisted on guaranteed free passage; Iran wishes to preserve rights over commercial transit terms. Third, the highly enriched uranium (HEU) disposition path: Iran’s MOU commitment is to “negotiate” removal, not transfer it immediately — a distinction the Supreme Leader has reinforced by stating the uranium stays in Iran. Iran’s Foreign Ministry acknowledged Monday that while progress has been made, “no one can claim that the signing of an agreement is imminent.”
“A consensus was reached on many topics discussed, but no one can claim that the signing of an agreement is imminent.” — Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, May 25, 2026
The Hatami threat adds a separate pressure dimension. The IRGC general’s public warning — timed as Rubio was speaking carefully in New Delhi — may reflect hardline domestic positioning ahead of any formal signing. The EU, meanwhile, confirmed accelerated transfers of air defense systems to Ukraine following Sunday’s overnight strike: a signal that European capitals are managing two parallel tracks — Iran de-escalation and Ukraine reinforcement — with limited diplomatic bandwidth for both.
US equity markets are closed for Memorial Day and reopen Tuesday May 26. In their absence, Monday’s global session delivered a clear directional signal: European equities higher, oil sharply lower, dollar softer, Bitcoin steady. The message is deal optimism. The US session that prices the signature — or its absence — is 24 hours away.
European stocks opened on a strong footing, with the STOXX 50 climbing 1.1% and the STOXX 600 rising 0.6% to near three-month highs. The EU50 closed at 6,072 — its highest level since April 2026. Energy stocks lagged as oil prices cascaded; miners and industrials led on Hormuz reopening expectations. Emerging market equities and currencies also gained, as the dollar’s 0.28% softening against its major peers provided a secondary tailwind. Lower oil, lower dollar, lower imported inflation: the correlation is direct.
| Asset | Price | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $98.12 | –5.2% | Hormuz reopening signal; blockade formally still active |
| WTI Crude | ~$92 | ~–5% | Steepest deal-driven single-day drop of the war |
| EU STOXX 50 | 6,072 | +1.1% | Three-month high; highest since April 2026 |
| STOXX 600 | ~624 | +0.6% | Near three-month highs; risk-on across sectors |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $77,292 | +0.4% | Holding post-Sunday recovery; Tom Lee $76K trigger 6 days out |
| Ethereum (ETH) | $2,113 | +0.7% | Moving with BTC; thin Memorial Day volumes |
| DXY Dollar Index | 98.96 | –0.28% | Softening on lower oil, reduced inflation risk signal |
| 10-Year Treasury | ~4.56% | — | Elevated but steady; US markets closed |
| 30-Yr Mortgage | 6.65% | — | Bankrate May 25; up from Freddie Mac 6.51% (May 21) |
| Samsung Strike Threat | Day 4 / 18 | No Settlement | Spot pricing signal expected days 5–7 this week |
US markets reopen Tuesday May 26 with the full weight of Memorial Day deal developments to price. Three scenarios define the range, with Scenario B the current base case.
The calendar accelerates regardless of the deal outcome. Consumer confidence prints Tuesday — the first US macro data post-Memorial Day, read against the backdrop of UMich Consumer Sentiment at a record-low 44.8. Wednesday brings the AI earnings round: Marvell (MRVL), Salesforce (CRM), Synopsys (SNPS), and Snowflake (SNOW) — the first major artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure earnings test since NVDA’s blockbuster May 20. Friday May 29 is the last US equity trading day of May. Tom Lee’s $76,000 BTC monthly close trigger falls at end of May, currently $800 away with five days remaining (BTC trades 24/7).