Two data points defined Thursday’s session. The first: April’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 3.8% year over year — the highest reading since May 2023 — confirming that inflation has re-accelerated through the spring and all but eliminating any prospect of a Federal Reserve rate cut in 2026. Markets opened lower. The second: Axios reported that US and Iranian negotiators had agreed on a 60-day memorandum of understanding (MOU) to extend the ceasefire and begin nuclear talks, pending President Trump’s final approval. Markets surged.
The S&P 500 closed at a record 7,563.63. The Nasdaq Composite closed at a record 26,917.47. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added a fractional 0.05% to 50,668.97. Three record closes on a day when the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge hit a three-year high reflects a market that has decided the deal trade outweighs the rate trade — at least for now. Snowflake (SNOW) delivered its best session ever, gaining 36.5% as the AI trade fully re-ignited. Dell Technologies (DELL) provided the after-hours exclamation point, surging 18% on a blowout quarter with artificial intelligence (AI) server revenue up 757% year over year.
Bitcoin (BTC) provided the counterpoint: $73,461 at the close and $2,538 below Tom Lee’s $76,000 monthly close trigger. One US equity trading day remains before Friday May 29, the last US equity trading day of May.
Markets fell on PCE (3.8% YoY, 3-year high) and a GDP downgrade to +1.6%. Then the Axios MOU report landed. Markets surged to records. Final verdict: deal trade beat the rate trade by the close.
The session opened lower after PCE printed 3.8% year over year and Q1 gross domestic product (GDP) was revised down to +1.6%. Hawkish on inflation, weak on growth — two numbers that describe a deteriorating macro backdrop. Then the Axios MOU report landed. The S&P 500 swung from session lows to a record close of 7,563.63. The Nasdaq added 0.91% to 26,917.47, also a record. The market made its judgment: the diplomatic track matters more than the data track, for now.
Snowflake delivered its best session ever, closing up 36.5% on a sustained reaction to Wednesday’s earnings beat and AWS partnership announcement. Dollar Tree surged 16.8%, Best Buy added 15.76%, and Kohl’s rose 15% on before-open earnings beats — a consumer resilience signal on the same day Conference Board data confirmed two-thirds of Americans are cutting purchases. Synopsys fell 8.17% and Salesforce dropped 1.74%, continuing to price in their Wednesday after-hours guidance misses. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) shed 1.4% as CEO Jamie Dimon’s $20 billion acquisition comment from Wednesday weighed.
April’s PCE price index rose 3.8% year over year — the highest level since May 2023, up from 3.5% in March and 2.8% in February. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, rose 3.3% annually, the highest since October 2023. The monthly core reading provided a lone dovish data point: +0.2% versus the +0.3% estimate. Every other figure in Thursday’s macro batch was hawkish.
Q1 GDP was revised down to +1.6% from the consensus of +2.0%. Initial jobless claims rose to 215,000 for the week ending May 23, above the 211,000 estimate. CME FedWatch shows a 98.9% probability of a hold at the June 17 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, with only 1.1% of traders pricing a cut. The divergence between PCE (3.8%, accelerating) and GDP (+1.6%, decelerating) is the stagflation signal the market chose not to price on Thursday — choosing the deal trade instead.
“Those counting on a rate cut in the second half of this year can forget it — this kind of data makes it increasingly unlikely we will get one in 2026 or even for all of next year.” — Christopher Zaccarelli, Northlight Asset Management, May 28, 2026
Axios, citing two US officials and a regional source, reported that US and Iranian negotiators have agreed on a 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire and begin formal negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program, pending President Trump’s final approval. The report sent markets to new intraday and closing records. Iran’s Tasnim news agency responded that the text of a potential MOU has not been finalized or confirmed. Trump has not publicly acknowledged the framework.
A credibility qualifier applies. TheStreet noted that at least one Axios reporter has been accused of working with Trump Administration messaging to give investors cause for hope during the war — a pattern that has produced market-moving Iran reports of varying subsequent accuracy. Wednesday’s session saw a different dynamic: Iranian state media published the Hormuz commitment, which the White House called a “complete fabrication.” Thursday inverts that: a US-sourced Axios report with Iran denying finalization. Both sequences produced record closes. The pattern reflects a market that is pre-positioned long and leaning into any constructive deal signal.
What the 60-day MOU is not: it is not the comprehensive peace framework that ends the war. If confirmed, it extends the ceasefire window for nuclear negotiations — it does not sign the deal, reopen Hormuz, or lift the naval blockade. All material oil supply and sanctions mechanics are deferred to the subsequent negotiation period. The blockade formally remains active.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled at $88.90, up a fractional 0.3% from Wednesday’s $88.68 close. Brent settled at $93.71, down 0.6%. The contrast with Wednesday is instructive: a White House denial of an Iranian Hormuz commitment drove oil down 5.5% two sessions ago. Thursday’s Axios MOU report produced a near-zero oil response. The difference is the nature of the signal — Wednesday’s report addressed Hormuz reopening directly; Thursday’s 60-day ceasefire extension defers Hormuz mechanics to future negotiations.
Oil markets have now priced four sessions of consecutive deal optimism into the benchmark levels: WTI at $88-89 versus $104+ at the start of last week. The marginal impact of additional deal signals is diminishing. The next material oil catalyst is either a confirmed, signed deal with a Hormuz reopening timeline — or an escalation that reverses the pricing. A 60-day MOU extension, if confirmed, moves neither needle substantially.
European markets close around 11:30 AM ET. The Axios MOU report landed mid-afternoon. Europe traded Thursday on PCE and GDP alone — and closed lower. The US session got both data points and the deal report, and closed at records.
| Market | Close | Context |
|---|---|---|
🇯🇵 Japan — Nikkei 225 Asia · Closed |
–0.47% |
64,693.12. PCE data and hawkish Fed signals weighed on sentiment overnight. Nikkei pared larger early losses as US futures stabilized ahead of the PCE print. |
🇰🇷 South Korea — KOSPI Asia · Closed |
–0.53% |
8,185.29. Pulled back from Wednesday’s record close of 8,228.7. Samsung and SK Hynix gave back modest gains. Inflation concerns and a stronger dollar weighed on export-sensitive names. |
🇭🇰 Hong Kong — Hang Seng Asia · Closed |
–1.27% |
25,006.16. Sharpest Asia-Pacific decline Thursday. Tech and property names weighed. Dollar strength from the PCE print pressured Hong Kong-listed USD-sensitive stocks. |
🇨🇳 China — CSI 300 Asia · Closed |
+0.12% |
4,914.21. Only major Asian index to close positive Thursday. Pared early losses to close fractionally higher; domestic stimulus optimism provided mild support against the global risk-off tone. |
🇦🇺 Australia — ASX 200 Asia · Closed |
–1.43% |
8,592.90. Steepest percentage decline in the Asia-Pacific region Thursday. Materials and mining names led losses as the dollar strengthened and commodity demand signals weakened on the hawkish PCE. |
🇩🇪 Germany — DAX Europe · Closed Before MOU |
–0.45% |
25,063.93. European close at ~11:30 AM ET preceded the Axios MOU report. DAX traded the hawkish PCE data and Q1 GDP downgrade without the afternoon deal catalyst that lifted US indices. |
🇫🇷 France — CAC 40 Europe · Closed Before MOU |
–0.38% |
8,176.66. Same dynamic as Frankfurt: PCE-driven caution without the benefit of the afternoon deal report. CAC outperformed FTSE on the day despite both closing lower. |
🇬🇧 United Kingdom — FTSE 100 Europe · Closed Before MOU |
–1.0% |
~10,395. Worst European performer Thursday. Energy sector weighed as oil gave back some gains on inflation-demand concerns. FTSE’s higher commodity weighting amplified the PCE-driven risk-off. |
Bitcoin confirmed its session close at $73,461 — down from Wednesday’s $74,194 and $2,538 below Tom Lee’s $76,000 monthly close trigger. One US equity trading day remains before Friday May 29. BTC trades 24/7 with the calendar month closing Sunday May 31. A recovery from Thursday’s close to above $76,000 by end of May requires a gain of more than 3.4% in three calendar days.
Ethereum (ETH) briefly broke below $2,000 intraday for the first time since late March — hitting as low as $1,971 — before recovering to close near $2,004. US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have bled more than $2 billion since their last net inflow on May 14, an eight-session outflow streak. A $1.3 billion IBIT dark-pool block drained further institutional bids Thursday. Bitcoin’s fourth consecutive session decline while major equity indices set all-time records is not a temporary correlation break — it is a confirmed structural decoupling. The equity record-setting is driven by the AI trade and the Iran deal trade; neither mechanism transmits directly into crypto. The Tom Lee trigger now requires a reversal of a multi-session trend in two calendar days.
Dell Technologies reported Q1 FY2027 results after Thursday’s close that surpassed every key estimate by a wide margin. Revenue of $43.84 billion climbed 87.5% year over year, beating the $35.77 billion consensus by 22.6%. Non-GAAP EPS of $4.86 beat the $2.96 consensus by nearly 64%. AI-optimized server revenue reached $16.1 billion in a single quarter — a 757% increase year over year — as enterprise AI infrastructure demand accelerated beyond hyperscaler clients into sovereign governments and traditional corporate buyers. Shares surged 18% in extended trading.
Dell’s Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) generated $29.01 billion in total revenue, up 181% year over year, with AI servers representing 55% of ISG revenue. The company guided to approximately $50 billion in AI revenue for fiscal year 2027 — roughly 100% year-over-year growth. Dell exited the quarter with a $43 billion AI server backlog. Management’s summary: AI demand is “showing no signs of slowing.” In the context of this week’s earnings, Dell and Snowflake together confirm that the AI infrastructure trade has not peaked — it has bifurcated from cloud security (Zscaler) and legacy enterprise software (Salesforce).
| Asset | Close | Change | % Chg | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,563.63 | +43.27 | +0.58% | New all-time record close; beats Wednesday’s 7,520.36 |
| Nasdaq | 26,917.47 | +242.74 | +0.91% | New all-time record close; AI trade fully re-ignited |
| Dow Jones | 50,668.97 | +24.69 | +0.05% | Closing high; flat on day as inflation data weighed on value |
| Russell 2000 | ~2,921 | ~+0.1% | ~+0.1% | Near flat; small cap muted on inflation concerns |
| VIX | ~16.66 | +0.37 | +2.3% | Rose slightly; deal uncertainty + PCE creating hedging demand |
| WTI Crude | $88.90 | +$0.22 | +0.3% | Near flat; Axios MOU did not extend oil decline |
| Brent Crude | $93.71 | –$0.56 | –0.6% | Slight decline; deal pricing near saturation at current levels |
| Gold | ~$4,534 | ~–$65 | –1.4% | Sharp decline; risk-on session, deal optimism reduced safe haven |
| 10Y Treasury | ~4.58% | +0.04 | — | Yields rose on PCE 3.8%; confirms hawkish Fed backdrop |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $73,461 | –$733 | –1.0% | $2,538 below $76K trigger; 1 trading day left in May |
| Ethereum (ETH) | ~$2,004 | –1.2% | –1.2% | Recovered from $1,971 intraday low; first breach of $2K since March |
| DELL (AH) | +18% | After Hours | +18% | AI server +757% YoY; EPS $4.86 beats $2.96 by 64% |