🌙 FUTURES OPEN · WAR DAY 93 · IRGC DOWNS US DRONE · IRAN: NUCLEAR ISSUE OFF TABLE · BRENT $93.37 +2.4% · OIL WORST MONTH SINCE COVID · S&P AT ALL-TIME HIGH · BTC $73,805
BRENT $93.37 +2.40% — MONDAY OPEN CONFIRMED
WTI ~$89.50 +2.4% EST — IRGC DRONE PREMIUM
S&P 500 FUTURES ~7,570 — NEAR FRIDAY ATH
NASDAQ FUTURES ~29,100 — NINE-WEEK WIN STREAK
GOLD ~$4,505 — ABOVE $4,500
BTC $73,805 — TOM LEE $76K TRIGGER: MISSED
IRAN: NUCLEAR ISSUE OFF TABLE IN TALKS — MOU STILL UNSIGNED
IRGC DOWNS MQ-1 PREDATOR OVER PERSIAN GULF
OIL: −17% IN MAY — WORST MONTH SINCE COVID 2020
BRENT $93.37 +2.40% — MONDAY OPEN CONFIRMED
WTI ~$89.50 +2.4% EST — IRGC DRONE PREMIUM
S&P 500 FUTURES ~7,570 — NEAR FRIDAY ATH
NASDAQ FUTURES ~29,100 — NINE-WEEK WIN STREAK
GOLD ~$4,505 — ABOVE $4,500
BTC $73,805 — TOM LEE $76K TRIGGER: MISSED
IRAN: NUCLEAR ISSUE OFF TABLE IN TALKS — MOU STILL UNSIGNED
IRGC DOWNS MQ-1 PREDATOR OVER PERSIAN GULF
OIL: −17% IN MAY — WORST MONTH SINCE COVID 2020
🌙 Sunday Night — Overnight Recap
SUNDAY PM
IRGC shoots down US MQ-1 Predator drone over the Persian Gulf — first confirmed US drone loss of the war. IRGC air defence detected and downed the aircraft after it crossed into Iranian airspace. Immediate oil risk premium.
SUNDAY
Iran MP Kowsari: nuclear issue "no longer part of negotiations." Stunning scope reduction. Ongoing talks now focused solely on ceasefire extension and preventing resumed aggression — the uranium disposal framework from the proposed MOU is off the table.
SUNDAY
Trump in Lara Trump interview: calls Iran "very tough negotiators," says US is taking a "patient approach." Fox News separately: Trump vows Iran will end "slowly but surely" if no deal reached.
CONFIRMED
Brent Monday morning open: $93.37 — up $2.17 (+2.4%) from Friday’s $91.20 close. Direct response to Sunday’s escalation. Oil just ended its worst month since COVID 2020 (−17% in May), and June opens on the upside.
CONTEXT
US-Iran trading ceasefire violation accusations (NBC News live blog). Parliament Speaker Qalibaf: Iran is "pushing back the enemy" in a "history-making" war. Ceasefire fraying on multiple fronts as MOU remains unsigned.
$93.37
Brent Crude
+$2.17 / +2.4% — confirmed Monday open
~$89.50
WTI Crude (est.)
+~2.4% — IRGC drone premium
~$4,505
Gold
Holding above $4,500
$73,805
Bitcoin
Tom Lee $76K trigger: MISSED
🌙 Futures Open — War Day 93 · Oil Surges to Open June
Sunday Night — Live
Brent Pops $2 as June Begins. Iran Removes Nuclear Issue From Talks.
Editorial Desk
Sunday night delivers a two-part escalation that oil markets are immediately pricing. First: the IRGC shot down a US MQ-1 Predator drone over the Persian Gulf — the first confirmed US drone loss of the war — adding an acute risk premium to an already tense ceasefire. Second, and more structurally significant: Iranian MP Kowsari stated Sunday that nuclear issues are "no longer part of negotiations." That removes the uranium disposal and enrichment framework from the MOU that Trump left unsigned on May 29 — after walking out of talks without a "final determination." The deal that remains on the table is narrower and weaker than what either side described a week ago.
Brent responded with confirmation: Monday morning open at $93.37, up $2.17 from Friday's already-battered $91.20 close. Oil just finished May down 17% — its worst month since COVID 2020. June begins with the calendar reset and a geopolitical jolt pointing upward. Equity futures, meanwhile, are near flat relative to Friday's all-time-high close, continuing the nine-week pattern of the S&P absorbing war escalation without breaking. Bitcoin closed May at $73,805 — Tom Lee's $76,000 trigger is officially missed for the May monthly close. The war trade is repricing overnight oil risk while equities hold the AI bull run floor.
“Contacts with Washington remain focused on ending the war and preventing renewed aggression. Iran’s nuclear issue is no longer part of the negotiations.” — MP Esmail Kowsari, Iran Parliament National Security Committee, May 31, 2026
Equity Futures (approx.)
S&P 500 Futures~7,570 near flat
Nasdaq 100 Futs~29,100 near flat
Dow Futures~50,500 near flat
Russell 2000~2,820 near flat
9-Week StreakAll-time highs Friday
Commodities & Crypto
Brent Crude$93.37 +2.40%
WTI Crude (est.)~$89.50 +~2.4%
Gold~$4,505 steady
Bitcoin$73,805 May close
🛣 Oil — Brent $93.37 / WTI ~$89.50 · Worst Month Since COVID · June Reset
Oil Ends Its Worst Month Since COVID, Then Opens June With a Pop.
The calendar arithmetic here matters. May was oil's worst month since April 2020 — Brent fell from approximately $110 to $91.20, a decline of roughly 17%. The primary driver was progress (real and perceived) toward an Iran MOU that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Markets priced a deal; a deal did not materialise. Sunday night's developments retroactively vindicate some of that selling: the nuclear enrichment issue is now off the table, the MOU is still unsigned after 93 days of war, and the IRGC has now shot down a US drone — hardly the behaviour of a party racing toward de-escalation.
Brent's $93.37 Monday morning open — up $2.17 from Friday's close — is the market's first repricing of this narrowed deal window. It is not a full reversal of May's loss, but it is a directional signal: the Strait of Hormuz premium that markets bled away in May is beginning to rebuild as June begins. The IAEA separately reported a record military-grade HEU stockpile on May 31 — a data point that will further complicate any rushed MOU timeline regardless of what the negotiating parties claim.
Brent Crude (Monday open)$93.37 +$2.17 / +2.40% — confirmed
WTI Crude (est.)~$89.50 +~2.4% — proportional to Brent
May 2026 performance−17% — worst month since COVID April 2020
Primary catalyst (Sunday)IRGC drone shootdown + nuclear issue removed from talks
IAEA (May 31)Record military-grade HEU stockpile reported
🌐 Geopolitics — Drone Down · Deal Narrowed · MOU Clock
The Deal That Was Never Signed Is Now Smaller. And an IRGC Drone Just Made It Smaller Still.
Sunday closes with the Iran deal in a more complicated position than at any point since ceasefire negotiations began. Trump left May 29 talks without signing an MOU or announcing a "final determination." On May 31, the situation deteriorated on two simultaneous tracks. The IRGC's Predator drone shootdown is an operational escalation: if the ceasefire is fragile enough for drone incidents, the 60-day MOU extension it was supposed to anchor becomes harder to sell to either party's domestic audience.
More structurally significant is the Iranian MP's statement that the nuclear issue is no longer part of the negotiations. The original MOU framework — as reported by Axios and CBS — explicitly included Iranian commitments on highly enriched uranium disposal and enrichment levels as first-order negotiating items during the 60-day window. If Iran has withdrawn that from the table, the MOU that remains is a ceasefire extension without the nuclear architecture that made it strategically meaningful to Washington. IRGC General Rezaei's earlier warning — that Iran would "attack and blockade" if Trump "betrays" the negotiations — now reads as context for the narrowing: Iran is managing Trump's room to manoeuvre rather than offering him deliverables.
Deal status as of Sunday night: MOU unsigned. Nuclear enrichment now off-table per Iranian parliament. IRGC shot down US drone. Trump publicly patient but threatening. Ceasefire fraying. IAEA records show record HEU stockpile. The deal window that drove May’s oil selloff is materially narrower than markets priced.
MOU statusUnsigned — Trump left May 29 without “final determination”
Nuclear issueOff table per Iranian MP Kowsari (May 31)
IRGC actionMQ-1 Predator downed over Persian Gulf — Sunday
Trump signal“Very tough negotiators” — patient but warning “slowly but surely”
Next formal catalystJune FOMC: June 16–17 (Warsh) — 16 days
📅 Monday Watch — June 1 Open Catalysts
What to Watch When Monday Opens
ISM Manufacturing — June 1
First major June economic print. Consensus watching for tariff-related demand signals. A miss here adds to stagflation narrative; a beat sustains the S&P nine-week bull case into June.
KEY DATA
Oil holding $93 (Brent) / $89 (WTI)
If Brent holds above $93 into Monday trade, the May selloff is being partially priced back. A move above $95 would signal market is genuinely repricing the MOU-off scenario. Watch for additional Iran statements Monday morning.
OIL LEVEL
Iran MOU response — any Sunday night/Monday AM statement
With nuclear issue now off table per Iranian parliament, watch for US official response. If Washington confirms the narrowing, oil moves further. If Washington contradicts the Iranian MP, partial retracement possible.
CRITICAL
S&P support at Friday ATH close
Nine straight weekly gains. Equity futures near flat Sunday night — the AI thesis is holding the floor against war escalation for the ninth consecutive week. Support is last week’s close. Any gap-down at open would be the first geopolitical break in two months.
PATTERN
Bitcoin $76K — Tom Lee trigger officially missed
BTC closed May at $73,805. Tom Lee’s $76K monthly close trigger for bull market confirmation is officially missed. Watch $74K as the first technical support into June. BTC+ETH ETFs had $2B combined outflows last week.
CRYPTO
FOMC countdown — June 16–17 (Warsh)
16 days to Warsh FOMC. Pre-meeting blackout begins shortly. Any Fed speaker on Monday is potentially the last before blackout. Oil above $89 WTI reinforces the no-cut scenario. Watch for any hawkish language on energy inflation.
FED